We must live in hope

One of the things I learned a very long time ago was that if you want to achieve something, you have to do a little planning.

Knowing how to start something is not enough. Actually, it’s the easy part. Keeping going and, more impor­tantly, having an idea of ​​what success looks like so you know when you’ve achieved it are even more important than knowing how to start. In fact, you shouldn’t start until you know these things. Otherwise, confusion, disor­ga­ni­zation, waste and eventual failure are guaranteed. Each follows day like night.

Nothing I say should surprise anyone. However, look at how most people are progressing with their New Year’s resolu­tions and it’s obvious that most people know what I’m saying, but very few seem to be able to plan.

It appears that Donald Trump and his cohort of henchmen in Washington, DC can be counted among them. Trump started a war against Venezuela. Invading a country, kidnapping its president, removing that person and his wife by force, and then declaring that you will run the country from now on because no one in that country appears to be able to do so is as close to declaring war as ever in the modern world, and that is exactly what Trump has done.

There is only one problem. It seems like no one in his admin­is­tration has thought about what might happen next.

Congres­sional support for this illegal act was not assured. In itself, this omission was illegal.

A UN resolution justi­fying this measure was not reached. That was also illegal in itself.

Failure to take the necessary steps to ensure that the actions he took were legit­imate was the very first sign that Trump had not thought through the conse­quences of his actions, but then things get much worse.

Trump claims the US will now rule Venezuela. But it looks like he’s angered just about everyone in Venezuela. Maduro still has supporters. His opponents will be saddened to be denied the oppor­tunity to govern, which was their goal. And there is an army in the country, and it is not insignif­icant. She too is likely to have an opinion on the issue, and armies in South American countries have long been polit­i­cally crucial. To claim that you will govern without first thinking about how you might do so, let alone making the effort to secure support for the processes you plan to put in place, seems like a great act of folly and a surefire way to start a very long and protracted war of attrition with many groups who, while they all hate each other, will hate the external aggressor even more.

Then there is Trump’s claim that US oil companies will now take over the production of this commodity, which is crucial to Venezuela’s economy and its future, as well as the well-being of its people. But none of these companies have appar­ently indicated that they have been informed about this or want to partic­ipate, and you can well under­stand why. As multi­na­tional corpo­ra­tions operating around the world, they may not want to be associated with a hostile takeover of a state, and who could blame them?

The domino effect is something else that I suspect Trump hasn’t thought about. Did he realize he was giving China the green light to invade Taiwan? And was it his intention to tell Putin that he could now invade the Baltic states, something he had wanted for so long?

Or could it be that he believed this was a compromise he was willing to accept in exchange for the conquest of Cuba, Greenland and perhaps Canada? We don’t know, but the conse­quences of all this are clearly uncertain. If there is a criterion of success under­lying his actions, we can be sure that we cannot identify it.

So what are the risks?

First, the likelihood of this invasion failing is very high. If there are two things the American people desper­ately want to avoid, it is the involvement of troops on the ground in foreign wars and the troops returning in body bags. Still, the chance that Trump can achieve his stated goals without signif­icant military deployment on the ground in Venezuela and signif­icant conflict appears to be very slim. I’m old enough to remember Vietnam and every­thing that came with it. The specter of this US military fiasco now hovers every­where in this election campaign.

Second, in such a situation, it seems unlikely that the obvious economic goal that Trump is pursuing with this campaign, namely securing additional oil resources that would reduce pressure on US oil prices in the event of insta­bility in the Middle East, can be achieved. Operating a successful oil industry in a war zone where terrorist attacks against oil targets would be so easy to carry out will be nearly impos­sible. It really doesn’t look like he’s thought any of this through.

Third, with any luck, the inter­na­tional order might recognize the value of upholding the United Nations Charter. I can’t guarantee this, but at least in the short term, Russia and China may want to join forces with Europe to do just that, to isolate Trump, even if it’s just to secure a short-term advantage. History is full of such events.

Fourth, if Trump fails, and I think he will, then Russia and China might actually take note. I’m not sure I would call that a silver lining, because while both currently view inter­na­tional law with a certain disdain, they also have a symbolic form of compliance, so this lesson didn’t need to be learned. However, his reinforcement could not cause any damage.

After all, if Trump thought he needed a war to divert attention from Epstein’s domestic agenda, afford­ability, the collapse of MAGA, and the upcoming midterm elections, then I think he is dead wrong. There were political leaders who were saved by the war. The most recent notable example of this was Margaret Thatcher, for whom the Falklands conflict was a turning point. Whatever its merits, however, this war was entirely legally defen­sible and surpris­ingly worked well against a military power that was also operating far from its homeland and with little conviction. This is where the similarity with Venezuela ends, where almost every­thing is different. If Trump thinks this is his role model, he is sadly mistaken.

So what’s left to say?

First, the Trump admin­is­tration has revealed its complete inability to think, plan and, most likely, deliver.

Second, we must pay close attention to what is happening in Venezuela because the situation is highly explosive in almost every way that word can be inter­preted.

Third, as disas­trous as this action is, hope remains possible because Trump’s ineptitude has made the likelihood of long-term success in what he sought to achieve so unlikely.

You may accuse me of having diffi­culty finding a good inter­pre­tation of the events unfolding in what I have written here.

Alter­na­tively, consider this a rational inter­pre­tation of apparent incom­pe­tence.

Both views could be fair.

My point is that while the world is definitely a darker place because of Trump’s actions, and the fear is entirely justified, there are reasons to believe that this action will not end in catastrophe.

As I have said many times at the end of many blog posts, we must live in hope.

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